EconSpark - Recent questions in Current Economic Issues

Does any body know how to carry out simulation analysis with GTAP 12 database?

Sat, 09 May 2026 21:44:59 +0000

Call for Papers: Special Issue of Macroeconomic Dynamics in Honor of Frank Ramsey

Sat, 31 Jan 2026 18:42:48 +0000

I am co-editing a special issue of Macroeconomic Dynamics (with Peter Galbacs) and we are currently soliciting papers for the issue. All papers will be refereed as if they were standard submissions to MD. The target publication date for the issue is mid-2028, the 1000th anniversary of Frank Ramsey's seminal publication of "A mathematical theory of saving". Interested authors can access the full Call for Papers at https://econ.tepper.cmu.edu/Ramsey/Call_for_papers.pdf.

In a volatile global economy, should policy success be measured by short-term stability or institutional readiness?

Mon, 29 Dec 2025 22:34:21 +0000

This question aims to encourage discussion on how economic policy success should be evaluated in environments characterized by recurring volatility, with particular attention to institutional capacity and policy implementation under pressure.

2Q data is wrong (again)

Sun, 02 Nov 2025 18:47:08 +0000

Well, the way economists calculate GDP is wrong. If Income is consisted of domestic consumption, exports, less imports, because the money got by exports is spent into the internal economy. It's clear that when you are calculating consumption it's decreased by imports. So domestic consumption is clear from imports and you must not decrease imports again. So, in 2Q data a decrease in imports mean an increase in domestic consumption. If you are decreasing imports again while calculating GDP again, a decrease in imports inflate GDP. So, right now we could be talking of recession because of 2 negative quarters. The truth is that for me 2 negative quarters don't need to be translated into a recession in a lot of cases.

Why are ICAO statistics the only paid statistics in the United Nations system? Is there an alternative?

Wed, 13 Aug 2025 17:15:40 +0000

I'm conducting economic research on the civil aviation industry in Latin America, but I'm surprised to find significant restrictions on data access, particularly from the United Nations. I'm looking for open-access data sources on this industry. I appreciate your collaboration.

How do rule changes impact market equilibrium?

Tue, 12 Aug 2025 23:52:37 +0000

I am eager to explore this question and welcome thoughtful discussion. My current understanding is as follows: When institutions change—throughnew rules, regulations, or policies—skills that were valuable under previous institutional frameworks can become obsolete, as they were specifically tailored to those earlier conditions. Consequently, demand for different skills is reconfigured. Because institutional change often occurs faster than the workforce can adjust its skills, this creates a mismatch between labor supply and demand, resulting in market disequilibrium. This disequilibrium persists as the adjustment of skills lags behind the pace of institutional change. The reconfiguration of demand and the ensuing disequilibrium lead to a reordering of marginal returns to skills and a redistribution of welfare. Some groups bear the costs associated with skill devaluation, while others benefit from the new rules.

I have developed these ideas further in a working paper posted on SSRN:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5335021

Solving simple poverty on an at-will basis in our at-will employment States through equal protection of laws?

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 20:20:49 +0000

Why not solve simple poverty on an at-will basis in our at-will employment States through the equity and equality of equal protection of the laws?

Anyone not officially living in poverty should be able to pay taxes, afford insurance, and avoid homelessness—this is the goal of addressing official poverty.

The current welfare system is inefficient, expensive, and prone to abuse, fraud, and waste because it tackles complex forms of poverty rather than focusing on simple poverty.

Why not solve simple poverty on an at-will basis in our at-will employment states, leveraging the equal protection clause to ensure fairer employment practices? The necessary legal and physical infrastructure already exists and only requires modernization to meet contemporary economic needs. Unemployment compensation in our at-will employment States that solves for official poverty could be the new 'minimum wage' instead of the current minimum wage that employers are subject to. In my opinion, that should mean that wages would be more responsive to inflationary pressures since anyone who feels they are not making enough, could simply quit on an at-will basis and collect unemployment compensation that solves for official poverty. We should also have no homelessness due to unequal protection of the laws.

Under capitalism, circulating capital is essential. Increased circulation benefits the economy, as seen with the full employment of capital resources. What could be more Efficient than that?

Dude, Where's My Nobel Prize?

Sat, 15 Mar 2025 18:59:33 +0000

See title and read https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ieKMaZnt_kFk66_vnpnIPvrdAy7g5Oh4/view

How do economic cycles contribute to explaining financial crises and predicting future global economic trends?

Wed, 05 Feb 2025 23:17:27 +0000

Understanding the Role of Time Cycles in Shaping the Global Economy is a crucial step toward improving future financial and economic policies. Through this research, I aim to enhance and develop this science for the greater good, encouraging researchers and relevant institutions to collaborate in exploring and analyzing the deeper impact of these cycles. Your valuable contributions could help provide practical solutions to global economic challenges."

"Economic Time Cycles" rely on analyzing the numbers associated with years to determine the beginning and end of each cycle. For example, if we look at the year 1927, we sum its digits (1 + 9 + 2 + 7 = 19) and then reduce the result to a single digit (1 + 9 = 10, and 1 + 0 = 1). Thus, we identify the start of a new cycle with the number "1".

On the other hand, if we take the year 1935 as an example, summing the digits (1 + 9 + 3 + 5 = 18) and reducing it (1 + 8 = 9) indicates the end of the cycle that began in 1927. This process reveals that each economic cycle repeats periodically, and major economic crises tend to follow similar patterns based on these numerical cycles.

"Analyzing Global Economic Patterns" shows how these time cycles repeatedly affect the global economy, where major financial crises occur cyclically based on these patterns. History demonstrates that major financial crises often occur at similar intervals, following mathematical patterns linked to years.

"Future Predictions" indicate that the upcoming cycle in 2026 may mirror the patterns of previous economic transformations, including significant shifts towards sustainable economies, the influence of technology, digital currencies, and changes in financial policies.

"Economic Policies" highlight how these cycles impact economic decisions, including government and financial institutions’ responses during periods of recession and recovery. The study also shows that global financial institutions play a vital role in adapting to these cycles and developing new solutions to economic crises.

"The Role of Technology": The research emphasizes the growing role of technology in shaping financial markets. Innovations such as artificial intelligence and digital currencies could reshape traditional financial systems, changing how transactions are processed and financial data is analyzed.

"Call for Collaboration": This research is a call for active participation in analyzing and improving this science for the public good, so that we can develop economic and financial strategies that contribute to the stability of the global economic system and solve future challenges more effectively.

"For more details on the research, please refer to the full study via the following link:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14805665
By understanding these economic time cycles and their patterns, we can pave the way for more effective financial policies and crisis management. If you have any further thoughts or need additional modifications, feel free to ask!

Economics is Physics?

Mon, 02 Dec 2024 19:49:10 +0000

The Fundamental Law of Economics FLoE: A finitely (not infinitely) converging algorithm addressing simultaneously the dual variables price and quantity represents the mathematical formulation for the Economic Globalization of the Planet. The FLoE has been derived from the Constructal Law and is a complement to this law. Constructal Law: For a finite economic system to persist in time it must evolve with freedom such as to increase access to what flows. The problem with economic systems is that they are not evolving with freedom. There is always a resistance to flow. Therefore, we need a Corollary to the Constructal Law: For a finite economic system to evolve with freedom the resistance to flow must be contained. What is this resistance? Is this resistance significant? Can this resistance be contained? What is this resistance: resistance in economic systems comes from the uninspired involvement of the human factor. Humans are acting on one of the dual variables price or quantity allowing the free variance of the dual variable to create unintended consequences. A businessman is putting his product out on the global market differentiating the prices such as to extract all the value. Market agents are buying this product on low priced markets and are selling it on high priced markets, underselling the producer and taking away some of the producer's revenue; sometimes as much as 50%. This is arbitrage capital and is exploiting price differentials but not creating value. The market arbitrage capital is a nonproductive capital and therefore resistance to flow. Is the resistance to flow significant: economist Nomi Prins estimates global market distortions mainly due to all sorts of market arbitrage to $150 trillions a year. Elon Musk is going after this $150 trillion market. He recently developed a Sofware which is supposed to bring in more revenue than all of his other businesses combined. Can this resistance to flow be contained: Could be contained if we somehow could control both dual variables - price and quantity. Entanglement is the solution. Entanglement is a fundamental property of matter that defines the universe binary and gives rise to time and space. In quantum entangled particles assume instantaneously (zero time, zero space) complementary statuses. You impose a horizontal resonance on one of the particles, the other is assuming instantaneously a vertical resonance. The entangled particles are in equilibrium. My assumption and Niels Bohr assumption in the Correspondence Principle is that entangled dual variables in classical physics behave identical to the entangled particles in quantum. Price and quantity assume complementary statuses only in measurable time and space. Entanglement gives rise to time and space. From zero in quantum to infinity for infinite complex systems. Price goes up, the entangled variable quantity goes down. Quantity goes up, the entangled variable price goes down. We have proven my assumption and Bohr's Correspondence Principle on a market model in geometric programming. Some postulates: 1. Timespace expands directly proportional to the complexity of the system. 2. Timespace expands inversely proportional to advancements in science / technology. 3. Timespace expands to infinity for infinite systems. In an example we reviewed the findings from a study on five medicines commercialized in Europe. We have reported and actual measured parallel trade. Reported parallel trade is always less than actual parallel trade. Reasons could be two - faulty market statistics, more likely intentionally under reporting parallel trade to justify the legality of parallel trade. We resolve the economic equilibrium problem and find parallel trade returned to the producers of the medicines and consumers in percentages and dollar values. $2 billion are returned to the five producers and $800 million to the consumers. This is an important finding. Parallel trade become legal under the claim that it benefits consumers. From our study it turns out that parallel trade is hurting consumers by $800 millions. Has parallel trade been legalized under a false pretense? Conclusions and comments: the finitely converging algorithm we derived from the equilibrium of electrical circuits. The laws that govern the equilibrium of electrical circuits are therefore also governing the economic equilibrium problem. Therefore, ECONIMCS IS PHYSICS. Historically it has been proven that democracy and capitalism are the most effective ways to produce the energy supporting life as we know it. However, capitalism is coming with a problem - polarization of wealth. The buying power is migrating up to the 5% - 10% of rich people who cannot possibly absorb any more the entire aggregate supply and we run into the painful recessions and depressions. The natural function of recessions and depressions is to redistribute wealth restoring the balance of buying power between the rich and the many. Democratic governments are currently attempting to redistribute wealth by fiscal and / or monetary policies with at best questionable results. Redistribution of wealth historically has been also done by violent means - revolutions and Socialism. Socialism is the least effective way to redistribute wealth as it ends up redistributing poverty. The most effective way of redistributing wealth is by the laws of physics. And here comes into play the FLoE. As in the example above the resistance to flow is redistributed to the five producers - $2 billion, and to the consumer $800 million. The balance of buying power is preserved. The economic wave is not cresting anymore and al also not crashing any more - no more recessions and depressions. Economics is an elastic medium that can be studied with the laws of elasticity from physics. ECONOMICS IS PHYSICS.

Will you attend the National Economic Resilience Forum?

Mon, 01 Apr 2024 16:52:52 +0000

Join us from April 30 - May 2nd 2024 at Argonne National Laboratory in Lemont, Illinois!

The National Economic Resilience Forum, hosted by the Argonne National Laboratory National Economic Research and Resilience Center, will gather practitioners and researchers from across the country to focus on the successes and challenges being faced by economic development practitioners around resilience, diversity equity and inclusion, climate change, and changing economic conditions to leave individuals with actionable ideas to implement in their communities.

Sponsored by the Economic Development Administration and the National Economic Research and Resilience Center at Argonne National Laboratory, this will be an opportunity for researchers, practitioners, and federal representatives to collaborate and connect. https://web.cvent.com/event/1c035c4f-dd79-48bf-b793-23e13c5fe5b1/summary

Is it possible for inflation to evenly affect all people?

Wed, 07 Jun 2023 09:15:31 +0000

I conducted a small research project using government inflation data, and it showed that inflation is much more severe towards retirement-age people as well as low-income households. Is there a way to prevent this, or is that an inherent part of our economic system? Here's a link to my findings: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1owCunc4XYZN9oKLLygws6_JY9OsG7Y3biKoj97X1U1M/edit?usp=sharing

Debate: Oliver Hart, Stephen Walt, Luigi Zingales, David Teece, Jay Barney, Asli Arikan

Tue, 06 Jun 2023 01:38:04 +0000

Debate: Oliver Hart, Stephen Walt, Luigi Zingales, David Teece, Jay Barney, Asli Arikan

Dear Colleagues;

Here is the link for the recording of the debate:
“The Firm in the Age of Inexorable Rivalry:
A moderated discussion on the “Theory of the Firm.”

Debaters: Jay Barney, Oliver Hart, David Teece, Stephen Walt
Cross Examiners: Asli Arikan, Luigi Zingales
Event recording date: May 23, 2023

Organizer and Moderator: Ilgaz Arikan

Access is free and open to everyone interested.
Please enjoy:
https://youtu.be/331elAnMHNg

Many thanks to the Academy of International Business (AIB) for their generous support and technical help with this event.

Ilgaz

Overseas Business Schools in Singapore: Deveopment?

Wed, 15 Mar 2023 20:04:18 +0000

Conferences abroad to encourage progress in developing nations. In Singapore, $12K per Capita income; $60K San Francisco's Bay Area, USA. The economic schools are developing, yes. How can we help schools like Gambit and Singapore Business School? What can we do to set an example?

What are the causes why the nuclear technology market in the US has slowed down?

Thu, 15 Dec 2022 08:40:51 +0000

What are the causes why the nuclear technology market in the US has slowed down? Why do Russia and China have advantages now? Discussion https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421522001306. Question is: the causes are 1) economics or 2) politics (+economics) or 3) loss of knowlege.

Interested in the NSF's Build & Broaden Program?

Fri, 14 Oct 2022 14:43:01 +0000

The National Science Foundation's Build and Broaden Program supports fundamental social and behavioral science research and research capacity across disciplines at minority-serving institutions and encourages research collaborations with scholars at minority-serving institutions.
On November 1-2, 2022, NSF is presenting an online 2-day workshop for researchers interested in Build and Broaden, including presentations by grantees and discussions with program officers about how to prepare proposals and submissions. The workshop title is, "Diversifying Diversity: New Research Opportunities in the Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences."
Agenda highlights:
• Keynote address by Dr. Marybeth Gasman, Executive Director of the Center for Minority Serving Institutions at Rutgers University.
• Presentations from program officers on how to prepare a winning proposal, how to draft an effective budget and more.
• Panel discussions with current Build and Broaden awardees from a variety of institutions.
To learn more about the program and the event, and to register, here's the link: https://beta.nsf.gov/events/diversifying-diversity-new-research-opportunities?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery.
NSF also welcomes offers to review proposals submitted through the program.

Has anyone realized that Russia-Ukraine war an event of opportunity for Europe to a unified industrial capacity?

Sat, 01 Oct 2022 06:44:44 +0000

With the end of the post-Cold-War period globalization, the world is entering a period of regionalization. Compared to other possible centers of regionalization such as the U.S, China or India, Europe as a whole is scale enough to accommodate a unified capacity of industries in commensurate with a canter of regionalization. But in practice, Europe is institutionally a collection of states, even the largest state can hardly accommodate a relatively complete structure of production. However, this Russia-Ukraine war has created Europe a demand for a unified capacity of industries, with which, Europe may be able to circumvent the existing weakness of institution.

Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity -- OMB announces standards review/revision process (6.15.22)

Wed, 15 Jun 2022 22:18:49 +0000

Reviewing and Revising Standards for Maintaining, Collecting, and Presenting Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity (OMB blog)

By Dr. Karin Orvis, Chief Statistician of the United States

As the Chief Statistician of the United States, I am excited to announce that my office is beginning a formal review to revise OMB’s Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (Directive No. 15): Standards for Maintaining, Collecting, and Presenting Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity. Directive No. 15 provides minimum standards that ensure our ability to compare information and data across Federal agencies, and also to understand how well Federal programs serve a diverse America. In addition, the current Standards encourage further disaggregation in the collection, tabulation, and reporting of data when useful.

Since I began this role in April, I have heard from leaders across the Federal statistical system, external stakeholders, and colleagues across the Executive Branch who share my commitment to updating the Standards and making this work a top priority. We will do so using tried and true processes, with experts from across the Federal Government reviewing the Standards, along with critical feedback and input from non-governmental stakeholders and the public. Ultimately, this will help ensure the Standards better reflect the diversity of the American people.

Much has been learned about the implementation of Directive No. 15 since it was issued approximately 25 years ago. Our review will make use of that knowledge, including the work of the previous OMB-chartered Interagency Working Group for Research on Race and Ethnicity and the work of the Equitable Data Working Group. This review will also allow the public and Federal agencies to offer new perspectives, as relevant, to inform the revisions.

My office will use a revision process similar to those used for other trusted statistical standards, which will help ensure the rigor, validity, objectivity, and impartiality of the resulting recommended revisions, and will include, at minimum, the following steps:

-- I will convene an Interagency Technical Working Group of Federal Government career staff who represent programs that collect or use race and ethnicity data.

-- This technical working group, through OMB, will solicit public stakeholder input on its recommended proposal through a Federal Register Notice.

-- I will consider the recommendations of the technical working group, as well as the public comments, to develop a recommendation to OMB leadership.

I expect to convene the interagency technical working group in the coming months. I understand the importance of moving quickly and with purpose. It is also important that we get this right. I am committed to a full, transparent process for updating the Standards. It will take the technical working group time to evaluate relevant research, engage in a meaningful way with the American public and all impacted agencies, and develop recommendations to send to me. Given the necessary steps, we have a goal of completing the revision no later than Summer 2024.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/briefing-room/2022/06/15/reviewing-and-revising-standards-for-maintaining-collecting-and-presenting-federal-data-on-race-and-ethnicity/

The Release of the Equitable Data Working Group Report (4.22.22): https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/news-updates/2022/04/22/the-release-of-the-equitable-data-working-group-report/

2017 interim report of Federal Interagency Working Group for Research on Race and Ethnicity https://www.dropbox.com/s/ixgyt2ceqrc4q1p/IWG%20Race%20Ethnicity%20interim%20report%20March%202017.pdf?dl=0
FRN inviting comment on 2017 report (3.1.17): https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2017-03973

Has anyone yet realized that the inflation is a period of opportunity for the rebuilding of domestic economy?

Thu, 09 Jun 2022 00:47:09 +0000

If the underlying cause for the inflation is truly apprehended, then we know it will last for quite a period of time. It may not be all bad, for this has provided the government with the opportunity to do something strategic which otherwise would be very disputable, especially as regards domestic industrial policy or supply chains.

How can the Federal Reserve stop inflation without causing a recession?

Wed, 02 Mar 2022 16:12:32 +0000

If the Federal Reserve created central-bank-digital-currency (CBDC) bank savings accounts for everyone, the Federal Reserve could have a return-on-savings tool to directly impact consumer demand on Main Street to reduce demand pressure to stop inflation without throwing the economy into recession. Currently, the Federal Reserve relies primarily on changing the interest in the financial markets on Wall Street, which affects the availability of funds for businesses to use to increase supply. Raising interest rates in the financial markets just makes it harder for businesses to add another line of production to increase supply to meet the excess demand where too much money is chasing too few goods and services on Main Street.
         Demand could be tamped down, and supply encouraged, by creating Federal Reserve CBDC savings accounts that offer high interest rates during inflationary periods on balances up to some specified limit, such as $10,000 (with no interest earned on amounts above that limit). Interest rates would only apply to accounts with a Social Security number and only one account per Social Security number. Businesses and individuals without a Social Security number could have CBDC accounts but would not earn any interest on their account balances. Meanwhile, rates in the New York financial markets could remain relatively low to stimulate, not suppress, supply. See YouTube video at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnMT7DVyK0g.
            Higher interest rates will encourage savings. Saving more and spending less is obviously what is needed when too much money is chasing too few goods. If the Federal Reserve were to offer high enough interest rates, excess demand could be reduced enough to stop inflation without forcing the economy into an unnecessary recession. This approach would withdraw money from the economy by offering a return on investment, not by taxation. Everyone with a Social Security number would automatically get a CBDC account and IRS tax refunds could be deposited into these accounts. This would especially benefit the elderly who need a good return on their savings to help finance their retirement. CBDC accounts offering high interest rates also could attract savings from people with high marginal propensities to consume (poor and middle-class people) who tend to spend most of their income. Encouraging more people to save more money would also serve as an automatic stabilizer by providing people with the savings they need to ride out economic downturns, which, in turn, would make such downturns shorter and less extreme -- protecting profits and tax revenues.
             Currently, when the Fed raises interest rates on Wall Street, it suppresses supply for seasonal, cyclical and other businesses that depend on short-term liquidity to maintain and establish inventory and cash flow. It suppresses business. Production is cut back when borrowing costs increase. This traditional approach suppresses both supply and demand as workers find less work and their incomes fall. The economy slides into recession.
               The mechanism for creating these accounts could take a page from our past. Under the Postal Savings Act of 1910, our post offices served as banks for more than 50 years from 1911 to 1966. You could go to any of our post offices (currently numbering 31,000) to cash a check or set up a savings account.
               Such a loan program already has been proposed in bills formulated in both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives in the last few years such as Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's Postal Banking Act as Senate bill S.2755 or Representative Rashida Tlaib's Public Banking Act as House bill H.R.8721. The Public Banking Act, which was recently introduced in the Congress to create postal savings accounts, could be modified to provide the Federal Reserve with a return-on-savings tool to curb excessive inflation without throwing our economy into a recession.
               The Federal Reserve, not the taxpayers, can pay for setting up and operating the postal banks. The Federal Reserve also could help pay for postal employee pensions. This would reduce, not increase, the overall tax burden. Currently, the Federal Reserve uses a cost-of-borrowing tool to stop excessive inflation by raising interest rates. That approach works by constraining business enough to cause closing of outlets, cutbacks in working hours and layoffs that suppresses consumer demand. This is an indirect and rather brutal way to reduce demand for goods and services that also reduces supply. The effect is to make it harder for firms to increase supply and harder for people working paycheck to paycheck to handle medical emergencies, automobile accidents and other situations where they need a small loan just to get by.
           Current supply shortages call for encouraging supply. But the traditional Federal Reserve policy approach will do the opposite of what is needed. Sure, suppressing business to lay off workers to reduce demand will work if you slam on the brakes hard enough. But trashing our economy to stop inflation is not necessary. Why punish the poor to stop inflation and make it harder for firms to increase supply? Targeting demand through CBDC accounts to stop excessive inflation or, alternatively, to stimulate demand in a weak economy will be much more cost effective in offering more bang for the buck, will be more direct and have a more immediate impact, use less money, would not require an increase in taxes, and would be less disruptive of our economy than current Federal Reserve money-supply stabilization strategies.   As a professional economist, how do you think about this problem? What is your perspective on how we can effectively stop inflation without causing a recession? Are there other policies that could help deal with this problem of stopping inflation without causing a recession?   Thank you for your consideration of this question?

ICES VI Student contest on Small Business Owners

Sat, 13 Feb 2021 16:13:23 +0000

ICES VI (The International Conference on Establishment Statistics) is holding a student contest on Small Business Owners. Graduate and undergraduate students are welcome. The winners will present at the conference in June and will also publish their work in the Conference Proceedings. This is a great opportunity for a graduate or undergraduate student to get some cash, publish and present at once (three lines in a CV). Many employers from business and government will be at this conference. Please, share the information with your students. ICES VI can easily be accessed by googling ICES VI, but more directly the site of the Contest is bit.ly/ICESVI-Student-Contest

9 recommendations to Biden Transition Teams/nominees

Mon, 30 Nov 2020 18:10:48 +0000

The AEA Committees on Economic Statistics and Government Relations sent this set of 9 recommendations and associated actions to Biden transition teams and/or nominees for the Labor, Commerce, and Treasury Departments, OMB, CEA, and others, on "Necessary Improvement in the U.S. Statistical Infrastructure." See:: https://www.aeaweb.org/content/file?id=13507. Feedback welcomed.

Call for Papers: Opportunity Zones

Sat, 31 Oct 2020 18:07:18 +0000

In an effort intended to spur economic development in distressed and left-behind communities, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act created more than 8,700 Opportunity Zones across the country and offered favorable capital gains tax treatment to investments in those zones. Although Opportunity Zones are still young, they are already stimulating rigorous research. To share, discuss, and critique that work, the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution is convening a virtual conference on Wednesday, February 24. (Start and end time to be determined.) Ed Glaeser of Harvard has agreed to give opening remarks.

We are looking for empirical papers and work in progress on any aspect of Opportunity Zones – including but not limited to the governors’ selection of zones; the flow of money to Opportunity Zones; the impact on real estate prices and employment. Papers will be circulated to participants in advance. Author presentations will be followed by a response from a discussant. Although discussion will be limited to invited participants, the conference will be live-streamed publicly.

Please submit a one-page proposal or a draft paper by November 23 to Haowen Chen (hnchen@brookings.edu). https://www.brookings.edu/call-for-papers-opportunity-zones/

Teaching in Corona times: useful examples for an undergrad micro-economics course?

Fri, 18 Sep 2020 08:56:29 +0000

I teach an undergrad micro-economics course. I usually update my course to include examples that reflect recent events that students can relate to. This year, I would like to include a small number of examples relating to the Corona virus. I am thinking of a simple game modelling hoarding in supermarkets, or the externalities in deciding how much social contact to have. I know that Olivier Blanchard published a chapter to complement his macro-economics handbook. Is anyone aware of similar micro-economic applications that I could use?

Impact of COVID-19 in South Africa?

Tue, 15 Sep 2020 08:29:28 +0000

Check it out: South Africa’s overall GDP is expected to decline by at least 5.1 and up to 7.9 percent in 2020 and recover slowly through 2024. This will lead to major setbacks in addressing poverty, unemployment and inequality, according to a new UNDP study on the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 in South Africa. More information here: https://bit.ly/32wqbWI

Do you wish to help "Save the Census" by advocating to assure higher data quality for economic research?

Wed, 02 Sep 2020 16:38:53 +0000

The Census Project has provided excellent background on a current legislative issue that could affect substantially the response rate and coverage of the 2020 Census. It's description of the current issue and its practical guidance for how you, as an individual who relies on Census data, can advocate for the best possible Census under corrent conditions, are very good. HERE’S HOW TO TAKE ACTION: https://thecensusproject.org/2020/08/27/efforts-to-savethecensus/

Are there economists working on the problem of COVID-19 vaccine allocation?

Wed, 02 Sep 2020 16:20:46 +0000

On September 1, 2020, The National Academies published its Discussion Draft of the Preliminary Framework for Equitable Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccine (See it at: https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25914/discussion-draft-of-the-preliminary-framework-for-equitable-allocation-of-covid-19-vaccine). Public comments are being accepted on this discussion draft until midnight, Friday, September 4. It appears there are no economists on the Committee that drafted the report. Given that economics in part studies the allocation of scarce resources, the lack of economists seems short-sighted. Or maybe it is a result of the report's focus on equity rather than efficiency? I would like to submit to the Committee refereals to any economists whose work could inform the report. Who are you? Thanks!

Call for Proposals: The Bioeconomics of Peace & Conflict

Sat, 08 Aug 2020 05:38:35 +0000

The Bioeconomics of Peace & Conflict
A Call for Proposals (CfP)

Topher L. McDougal, PhD
Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA
tlm@sandiego.edu

Jurgen Brauer, PhD
Emeritus Professor of Economics, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA
brauer.jurgen@gmail.com

J. Paul Dunne, PhD
Professor of Economics, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
john.dunne@uct.ac.za

We are likely living during -- or perhaps just slightly after -- the most peaceful period in all of human history. Yet levels of violence against the non-human inhabitants of this planet have never been higher than today. The violent death rate globally has plummeted from as high as 30% during the formation of early societies to just 0.5% in 2010 -- a drop of up to 98%. Conversely, we are currently experiencing the Earth's sixth great mass extinction event in the roughly 4 billion years since life is thought to have first evolved. The present moment is characterized by the loss of literally billions of local or regional animal populations, and over half of all non-human animals on Earth. These two observations -- stylized and generalized though they may be -- are not simply coincidental; rather, they are deeply intertwined. This relationship between the historically low levels of violence that human societies now enjoy, and the anthropogenic degradation of natural systems is unpleasant to contemplate, yet equally undeniable. Evidence is mounting that unprecedented economic growth experienced by human societies has induced a state of crisis for the Earth’s ecological systems. Many of the public goods provided by them – fresh water, clean air, abundant fisheries, nutritious soils, low sea levels, and moderate weather, to name a few – are increasingly at risk. Their failure poses existential threats to the societies humans have collectively built over millennia, and heightens the risk of violent conflict. Accordingly, economists are increasingly challenged to think creatively about the intersections between sustainability and conflict.

The Economics of Peace & Security Journal (EPSJ) will convene a group of distinguished and emerging scholars to contribute to a special issue on the “Bioeconomics of Peace & Conflict”. This Call for Proposals (CfP) invites explorations of key themes in the intersectional space between sustainability and peacebuilding, including:
Modeling forms of human-human and human-nonhuman predation and production (“peace on Earth” versus “peace with Earth”);
Understanding the economy as a bioenergetic subsystem of the global biosphere;
Institutional governance (including the government, NGO, and for-profit sectors) in an age of “global public bads”;
The growing role of artificial intelligence in scarce resource allocation, and its potential implications for peace;
The comparative viability of capitalism and alternative economic models in managing a peaceful transition to sustainability;
Theoretical and empirical evidence for maintaining peace in steady-state or even shrinking economies;
Impacts of sustainable energy deployment on peace and conflict dynamics;
The role of transnational illicit trades in linking environmental degradation and violent conflict (e.g., via endangered species trafficking or small arms).

We are especially interested in contributions capable of blending rigor with the bold, big thinking we believe this area of inquiry urgently needs. To this end, we link from this CfP a recent article, “Bioeconomic Peace Research and Policy” by Brauer and McDougal, to sketch out a portion of this new terrain. (https://www.degruyter.com/view/journals/peps/ahead-of-print/article-10.1515-peps-2020-0034/article-10.1515-peps-2020-0034.xml) This issue of EPSJ is intended to deepen and broaden conversations, establishing conceptual links across traditional disciplinary boundaries. As such, we especially welcome co-authored contributions from transdisciplinary teams drawn from a combination of the social and natural sciences.

Proposals should be no more than one page in length; EPSJ editors will then invite full contributions.

Proposal Submissions: Contact Topher McDougal, EPSJ Guest Editor, directly at tlm@sandiego.edu

Deadline: 15 December 2020

Article length: 5,000-7,000 words, exclusive of references.

Formatting: Please see the EPSJ website for submission guidelines: https://www.epsjournal.org.uk/index.php/EPSJ

How to measure social welfare?

Fri, 24 Jul 2020 13:01:00 +0000

Ideas on how to measure or formulate social welfare are welcome. Myself and a colleague are working on a paper to formulate and apply aggregate social welfare on country level.

Business Cycles, Growth Trap & Sustainable Capitalism. Remake

Wed, 01 Jul 2020 13:54:21 +0000

The Growth Trap can be divided in
two main causes. These factors concern the lack of consumption caused by profits, savings, imports and productivity increase. The Growth Trap is the main factor that leads to business cycles, which has been hidden until now. Sustainable Capitalism can avoid business cycles and lead the economy to full employment.
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Ap5alRvO4PEGhjAt6C7Cm7-5HLjo Ryan McConnell, 2020.

How to measure the impact of covid-19 on employment inequality between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians?

Thu, 28 May 2020 21:43:02 +0000

For my applied microeconomics course this semester we need to set up a hypothetical test for an outcome variable to show the impact that covid-19 has had on the outcome variable. I would like to test employment inequality between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. This is my idea so far: build an estimation model using historical data ( say the past 3 censuses (2006-2016)) with variables such as individual characteristics (ie age, male/female, married, education etc.) household characteristics (ie household size, mixed race household) and area characteristics (ie remoteness etc). Then using the values for all these variables from the 2020 census coming up with an estimate for employment. This estimate (for Indigenous and non-Indigenous) would effectively be the employment rate had covid-19 not occurred. Compare this to the actual employment rate and you have the impact of covid. Is this too presumptuous? Does anyone have a suggestion for improvements or a completely different idea? Worth noting is the fact that employment levels for both groups have barely changed over the past 10-15 years. (approximately 50% for Indigenous and 75% for non-Indigenous)

NSF has new Rapid Response Research funding program on COVID-19; Economists welcome to apply

Wed, 06 May 2020 19:52:09 +0000

In light of the emergence and spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States and abroad, the National Science Foundation (NSF) is accepting proposals to conduct non-medical, non-clinical-care research that can be used immediately to explore how to model and understand the spread of COVID-19, to inform and educate about the science of virus transmission and prevention, and to encourage the development of processes and actions to address this global challenge.NSF invites researchers to use the Rapid Response Research (RAPID) funding mechanism, which allows NSF to receive and review proposals having a severe urgency with regard to availability of or access to data, facilities or specialized equipment as well as quick-response research on natural or anthropogenic disasters and similar unanticipated events. Requests for RAPID proposals may be for up to $200K and up to one year in duration. Well-justified proposals that exceed these limits may be entertained. All questions about economic research prospects should be directed either to Nancy Lutz, NSF Economics Program Director, at nlutz@nsf.gov; Phone: (703) 292-7280, or to rapid-covid19@nsf.gov. Skip Lupia, NSF Assistant Director for Social, Behavioral and Economic Science (SBE) has opined that the SBE sciences have much to offer in the context of this RAPID funding.

Sustainable Capitalism. Roadmap.

Mon, 13 Apr 2020 06:40:11 +0000

This is my roadmap to apply my theories to current economic performance. https://1drv.ms/b/s!Ap5alRvO4PEGhXC5O3TU8rbN5rkD Ryan McConnell.

Is anyone reading "Arguing With Zombies" by Paul Krugman?

Wed, 18 Mar 2020 03:14:15 +0000

I'm reading this work by Paul Krugman and I find it very interesting. Considering that I was born in Spain though I'm an American citizen working in the previous country, I haven't been up-to-date with American politics and issues until a few years ago. I think that his columns are very humane and it can turn economist into a more humane human beings. I started reading it yesterday and I'm going deep into Health care system. In my opinion economists have to reach an intermediate point in economics. Everytime you study an economic issue there are two extreme sides. For example, if you tax too much corporations you can decrease investment and innovation and if you tax too much high wages you desincentivate hard work among young people, which is the wheel of prosperity. Military spending is very necessary because the world if full of danger (In Spain the Airforce is close to suffer from technical obsolescence). On the other hand you can't let people without medical assistance because it's immoral and American people don't deserve that suffering. Regarding the first chapter I think that if privatization of Social Security was unrisky, it would be an incredible idea. So it is a terrible idea if we take into consideration slumps in economic activity and the repoblation rate is over 2.1. I'll keep reading this great book while working here in Spain because it's making me focus on economics. This is because real problems in people's life is what has to motivate an economist. Any thoughts about this book? PD : I found an obstacle while calculating capital gains for private retirement insurances. How do you calculate the Present Value of a series of payments which increases it's amount over time? I worked on it just a few free minutes and I don't find the solution.

Latest work. Exogenous growth and the Exporter's Trap.

Sat, 22 Feb 2020 14:11:50 +0000

The endogenous growth(I presented it in one of my previous works),due toanincrease in profit, which createsspending into the economy(Translated in new wages in the profitable firmor profits and new wages in otherfirms)in a ratio below 1because of the division of dividends and investment, is false. That’s because the increase in profitis a decrease in profits of another firmand the increase in consumptiondue to higher wages in the first one, is a decrease in thesecond one. Therefore,wages diminish equally(i.e. cross consumption between workers of both firms). The financial multiplier (famous in the literature) can create growth in the economy because it’s a type of exogenous growth(only if credit or debt keepsflowing and expanding its size). But this growth has to be repaid or when private debt is too highthere is a credit crunch that destroys the economic activitycreated by the FinancialMultiplierat the worst. In these types of growth, the first is unreal and the second unsustainablebecause the inflow of credit must beinfinite (profits absorb part of thatinflownecessaryto reach a point where consumption and supply matches every short business cycle,i.e. a year.Theprofits takenby owners leave the economy in a newbad equilibrium). Butwhat happens when this inflow is continuous because of a trade balancethat’shighly positive?What’s the exporters trap? https://1drv.ms/b/s!Ap5alRvO4PEGhWc8IcLEFlUi7pBd RYAN McCONNELL

Is there a probability of a global recession in 2020?

Thu, 12 Dec 2019 12:09:31 +0000

How do we defuse the Thucydides' traps in the world?

Thu, 07 Nov 2019 15:16:07 +0000

http://ghosh.site/papers/paper85.pdf

Humane Slaughter is not a reality in Europe. It's worth eating a steak in Europe?

Wed, 25 Sep 2019 23:45:04 +0000

I got in contact with the animalist ideology in Spain. I realized that in contradiction with rationality and not following the stockbreeding laws that rule that industry in the US or UK (the use of stunning before killing), in Europe the stockbreeding industry is savage. News are telling us that we have to eat less meat, what is understandable and easy to do. But, it's worth eating a steak in a country where stockbreeders torture animals?
Cattle gave us food in the ancient times and humans gave them protection against predators and other dangers of wild life. Killing an animal making it unconcious before is not terrible because it doesn't suffer and it avoids aging diseases and suffering. What kind of developed country could allow that level of barbarian behaviour against their own cattle like in Europe?

Very Important. Realease of Business Cycles main cause and solution. The path to maintain full employment.

Fri, 20 Sep 2019 23:38:59 +0000

I want to release my main work. It contains the cause of business cycles and the solution in order to prevent them. Today it was released a way in order to increase economic activity by Moritz Kraemer endorsed by Ben Bernanke and my previous idea about strategical defense has gone. So there is my main work.
                                         https://1drv.ms/b/s!Ap5alRvO4PEGhUF8LbjREwoS_gJl?e=pDVstr
                                                                                         Contact me in order to make a professional paper work if someone is interested, I don't have resources right now in order to make it.
                                                                                            Ryan McConnell

Call for book chapters

Thu, 05 Sep 2019 18:07:36 +0000

Dear colleagues,

Neslihan Aydogan-Duda of UC Berkeley and I are co-editing the upcoming 2020 book Redefining Theory of the Firm through a Postmodern Approach for which we are soliciting chapter contributions. We can be somewhat flexible with the deadlines but a timely proposal submission is encouraged.

Proposals Submission Deadline: September 30, 2019
Full Chapters Due: October 31, 2019

Call for chapters: https://www.igi-global.com/publish/call-for-papers/call-details/4119

About the book
The existing theories of the firm are based on the classical inputs and fiat money as a medium exchange as per defining the organizational form of the firm. This theory canvasses a very wide landscape of the market exchange resting on the accepted types of inputs of production, the medium of exchange, financial institutions and the typical ways of regulating this economic exchange when markets fail to provide efficiency and equity. In this book, the author aligns these theories with the current facts and changes. The book covers a clear explanation of artificial intelligence, its limitations and performance related characteristics, adverse selection of such digital inputs and their managers, the relevant under-performance of digital inputs, maintenance issues and costs, economies of coding, the introduction of digital currencies and their impact on resource allocation, financial institutions and policy design, organizing the economic activity and fluid firm boundaries, economies of scope, entry barriers and high-tech companies, a post-modern approach to anti-trust policies, towards a new theory of investment across the globe and the relevance of core institutions in defining income allocation.The book also sheds light on digital security issues from an informed and technical point of view. This book intends to cover all transforming technologies such as bio, nano, nuclear technologies in juxtaposition to the digital in and outputs in attempting to provide a long and neglected understanding of our post-modern market place.

I am particularly on the lookout for chapters that address the following areas of scientific inquiry:
1. Maximizing "value creation" and not profits: The Benefit corporation legal structure
2. Networked economies and economic complexity
3. Social sciences as a single integrated field of study
4. The nexus between economic and governance structures and how emerging technologies are transforming it
5. Redefining "economic value": Towards better indicators of economic development
6. What is economic development in the 21st century? Moving past the obsession with GDP growth
7. Accounting for externalities: Sustainability, new modes of value creation and better cost accounting

Call for chapters; https://www.igi-global.com/publish/call-for-papers/call-details/4119

Please disseminate the call amongst your network. We are available to address any questions. Thank you.

Which economic journalists do you find most rewarding to read?

Thu, 05 Sep 2019 05:02:46 +0000

I enjoy Tim Harford's columns and blog posts... http://timharford.com/

Economist input on Consumer Expenditure Survey design invited by August 19

Tue, 23 Jul 2019 20:14:11 +0000

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics invites economists to comment on the design of its Consumer Expenditure Survey, particularly the Quarterly Interview and Diary
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/07/19/2019-15363/agency-information-collection-activities-submission-for-omb-review-comment-request-consumer
Comments are due by August 19, 2019.

Summary of CEX and proposed changes: The Consumer Expenditure Surveys are used to gather information on expenditures, income, and other related subjects. These data are used to periodically update the national Consumer Price Index. In addition the data are used by a variety of researchers in academia, government agencies, and the private sector.

The data are collected from a national probability sample of households designed to represent the total civilian non-institutional population. In order to accommodate Large Scale Feasibility Online Diary test, several modifications will be made to production procedures and collection including the addition of two question relating to internet access, implementation of an online Diary, and the addition of debriefing questions.

The study will obtain an expected 1,200 completed cases. The large sample size is needed in order to perform statistically significant analysis of any differences in data quality between the online diaries and production (paper) diaries prior to full production implementation. The study sample will be further divided into two groups, with one group receiving a $5 incentive. The CPI program is changing its source of outlet frame information from the Telephone Point of Purchase Survey (TPOPS) to the CEQ and CED surveys. As a result, the sample size for the CE surveys will increase.

Details CEX plans and proposals available at https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRAViewICR?ref_nbr=201903-1220-001
Choose IC List for forms and Supporting Statement for narrative.

How about hiring an AEA Proofs Editor and requiring theory papers to make their proofs clear?

Wed, 17 Jul 2019 16:50:01 +0000

Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution is discussing the new AEA Data Editor. See https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/07/the-aeas-new-data-policy.html#comment-159961954

How about extending the policy to theory papers, including econometric theory? I'd like having the proofs laid out step-by-step in an online appendix, with an AER special editor making the author clarify all the hardest steps where the author is tempted to say "Obviously,..." or "Using standard methods,..." or even just "It follows that..." when it doesn't clearly follow. We're all tempted by that, and it's too much to expect referees to check proofs carefully--- and even if they do, that doesn't help readers.

Please what are thesis worthy topics for finanacial economics and monetary economics?

Fri, 12 Jul 2019 10:02:49 +0000

I am planning to apply for PHD Economics and I need help in selecting my topic.
Thanks for your help.

what is the biggest challenge to the economic research credibility ?

Wed, 10 Jul 2019 16:18:53 +0000

What is the major challenge to the economic research credibility in the era we can easily manipulate and simulate data .

Please i need recent issues in Africa that is worth researching into for my Phd proposal in Economics.Thank you.

Tue, 09 Jul 2019 10:08:52 +0000

Am a planning to apply for Phd economoics

2022 Census of Agriculture -- content requests invited

Tue, 25 Jun 2019 14:44:53 +0000

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) issues a "Notice of Opportunity To Submit Content Request for the 2022 Census of Agriculture" https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/06/25/2019-13432/notice-of-opportunity-to-submit-content-request-for-the-2022-census-of-agriculture

Comments are due by July 25, 2019.

In preparation for the 2017 Census of Agriculture, NASS made numerous changes to the content and layout of the questionnaire based on extensive testing and input from data users. NASS is looking to stabilize the questionnaire for the 2022 Census of Agriculture so that data series can be created to measure more accurately all changes in U.S. agriculture. NASS recognizes that timely, reliable, and detailed statistics help maintain a stable economic atmosphere and reduce risk for production, marketing, and distribution operations. NASS is the primary data collection Agency of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). NASS is looking for ways to streamline the questionnaire to reduce respondent burden and data collection costs, while still providing data users with the detailed data they need.

NASS is beginning the process of planning the content of the 2022 Census of Agriculture. We are seeking input on ways to improve the census of agriculture. Recommendations or any other ideas concerning the census would be greatly appreciated. The 2017 Census of Agriculture questionnaire may be viewed on-line at: www.nass.usda.gov/go/censusform.

Different policy approach to tariffs against low-costing exporters.

Thu, 13 Jun 2019 00:21:39 +0000

The expenditure in low-costing products from abroad get us a good chance to improve our people's quality of life. Here is just a thought concerning a different policy than tariffs, that would eliminate the doom, which is related to increasing product quality in devaluated economies, what leads to the hoard of wealth and the destruction of economies with a high standart of living shrinking their productive net.

This is a long-term policy approach. Maybe difficult to include in the agenda because of the short-terminism of nowadays.

Considering that low costing goods reduce the expenditures of the people and companies and that this sectors dominated by low costing are disappearing from the US economy i.e manufactures. This reduction of expenditures leave a higher income directed to national companies. This companies tend to increase their profits, but if they lower prices maintaining profits the same as before, a new increase in disposable income is ready to be spent. This chain can reduce prices in order to make them alluring for Chinese low income workers while increasing the quality of life of US householders. China's market is huge and the profits earned with this operation would get a huge market position for US firms increasing revenues and turning upside-down the wealth direction importer-exporter.

All this done, they can rise tariffs and expulse firms of their market but they would be the expelled from the WTO and not the US. Meanwhile, quality of life can be increased among the US workers.

Give me your opinion.

With kind regards.
Ryan McConnell.

Celebrating the work of Alan Krueger and his impact on public policy

Fri, 31 May 2019 12:04:20 +0000

June 26. 3 p.m. Brookings. (Will be livestreamed.) Details here: https://www.brookings.edu/events/celebrating-alan-kruegers-work-and-impact-on-economic-policy/

Does macro-level causality run most strongly from productivity growth to higher wages or vice versa?

Mon, 27 May 2019 20:13:29 +0000

At a micro level, it is standard to assume that higher labor costs (which I am hereafter going to term "wages") lead an individual firm to invest more in capital or make other labor-saving changes, boosting productivity. But macro-level analysis generally assumes that the prime way to increase wages is with higher productivity -- the opposite direction of causality. Looking at the the period from 1980 or so to the present, productivity growth in the U.S. has been much lower than over the previous several decades -- see, for instance, Robert J. Gordon's masterful work "The Rise and Fall of American Growth". Over the same period, the decline of unions led to a fall in the bargaining power of labor., and, up until recently, for many parts of the country, minimum wages had remained stagnant. Question: is it possible that if wages had been "artificially" propped up through different policies, that productivity growth would have been higher -- as a micro level analysis would imply. How much of the productivity puzzle could the weakened position of labor account for?

Yes, of course, it can (and will) be argued that these changes would have increased unemployment. But I note that the analyses of changes in minimum wage laws certainly does not point unequivocally in that direction, although the point is hotly disputed. Also, to what extent would higher labor compensation, versus capital compensation, have potentially resulted in consumer stimulus to the economy, perhaps offsetting, at least to some extent, the impact of higher wages on depressing employment -- i.e., macro feedback to greater demand.